Touchdown Regression Report
2022 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | PaTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Patrick Mahomes II (KC) | 16 | 6.33% | 6.56% | 413.4 | 1 | 6.33% | 5.92% | 411.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 16 | 6.11% | 5.65% | 389.5 | 2 | 5.67% | 5.91% | 381.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 14 | 4.78% | 7.88% | 374.6 | 3 | 4.39% | 7.71% | 365.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | 16 | 5.90% | 6.58% | 357.4 | 4 | 5.50% | 7.13% | 350.2 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Fields (CHI) | 15 | 5.35% | 5.03% | 307.0 | 5 | 4.46% | 4.83% | 293.8 | 8 | -3 |
| Geno Smith (SEA) | 16 | 5.24% | 1.47% | 299.3 | 6 | 4.62% | 1.42% | 284.7 | 12 | -6 |
| Daniel Jones (NYG) | 16 | 3.18% | 5.79% | 294.0 | 7 | 3.31% | 5.43% | 293.8 | 7 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAC) | 16 | 4.27% | 8.06% | 293.4 | 8 | 4.45% | 7.22% | 294.4 | 6 | +2 |
| Kirk Cousins (MIN) | 16 | 4.51% | 6.45% | 292.6 | 9 | 4.91% | 6.15% | 302.3 | 5 | +4 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | 16 | 4.94% | 0.00% | 280.9 | 10 | 5.11% | 0.92% | 286.5 | 11 | -1 |
| Tom Brady | 16 | 3.41% | 3.45% | 273.3 | 11 | 4.04% | 4.11% | 292.9 | 9 | +2 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 16 | 3.58% | 0.00% | 270.4 | 12 | 4.18% | 1.59% | 292.5 | 10 | +2 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | 12 | 5.21% | 2.65% | 243.1 | 13 | 5.23% | 2.97% | 245.5 | 13 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | 16 | 4.80% | 3.03% | 239.0 | 14 | 4.79% | 4.79% | 242.3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | 13 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 238.9 | 15 | 5.26% | 0.95% | 224.4 | 16 | -1 |
| Derek Carr (NO) | 15 | 4.78% | 0.00% | 233.1 | 16 | 4.49% | 0.59% | 228.1 | 15 | +1 |
| Russell Wilson (DEN) | 14 | 3.31% | 5.36% | 211.6 | 17 | 3.41% | 3.88% | 208.7 | 18 | -1 |
| Kyler Murray (ARI) | 11 | 3.59% | 4.48% | 207.5 | 18 | 3.95% | 4.16% | 211.8 | 17 | +1 |
| Marcus Mariota (PHI) | 13 | 5.00% | 4.65% | 205.6 | 19 | 4.73% | 4.54% | 201.8 | 19 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | 11 | 5.84% | 2.22% | 203.9 | 20 | 5.20% | 1.94% | 193.1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett (WAS) | 14 | 3.25% | 4.08% | 174.6 | 21 | 3.74% | 3.96% | 181.5 | 21 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton (CAR) | 13 | 4.76% | 0.00% | 172.2 | 22 | 4.24% | 2.30% | 168.2 | 25 | -3 |
| Davis Mills (HOU) | 14 | 3.55% | 6.25% | 172.0 | 23 | 3.44% | 5.24% | 168.1 | 26 | -3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) | 11 | 5.19% | 9.09% | 168.8 | 24 | 4.89% | 9.30% | 165.3 | 28 | -4 |
| Matt Ryan | 12 | 3.04% | 3.70% | 168.3 | 25 | 3.54% | 4.22% | 178.3 | 22 | +3 |
| Ryan Tannehill (TEN) | 12 | 4.00% | 5.88% | 167.2 | 26 | 4.27% | 6.63% | 172.2 | 23 | +3 |
| Mac Jones (NE) | 13 | 3.16% | 2.13% | 161.9 | 27 | 3.51% | 2.42% | 168.9 | 24 | +3 |
| Kenny Pickett (PIT) | 12 | 1.80% | 5.45% | 145.0 | 28 | 3.04% | 6.01% | 166.1 | 27 | +1 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 11 | 2.99% | 3.13% | 122.9 | 29 | 3.30% | 2.36% | 125.6 | 30 | -1 |
| Taylor Heinicke (ATL) | 9 | 4.63% | 3.57% | 122.0 | 30 | 4.63% | 4.06% | 122.8 | 31 | -1 |
| Carson Wentz | 8 | 3.99% | 4.35% | 121.8 | 31 | 3.84% | 5.25% | 121.4 | 32 | -1 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | 9 | 3.30% | 7.14% | 116.4 | 32 | 4.19% | 5.51% | 125.9 | 29 | +3 |
| Zach Wilson (NYJ) | 9 | 2.47% | 3.57% | 104.9 | 33 | 2.54% | 5.32% | 108.5 | 33 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | 8 | 7.65% | 4.55% | 90.4 | 34 | 5.98% | 8.52% | 84.3 | 35 | -1 |
| Sam Darnold (SF) | 5 | 5.00% | 8.00% | 86.4 | 35 | 5.24% | 7.55% | 87.1 | 34 | +1 |
| Mitch Trubisky (PIT) | 7 | 2.22% | 10.53% | 78.9 | 36 | 2.52% | 9.33% | 79.7 | 36 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson (CLE) | 5 | 4.12% | 2.70% | 71.0 | 37 | 4.55% | 2.46% | 73.4 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike White (MIA) | 4 | 1.71% | 16.67% | 60.6 | 38 | 2.74% | 17.86% | 68.2 | 38 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush (DAL) | 7 | 3.07% | 0.00% | 59.6 | 39 | 3.40% | 0.32% | 61.9 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley (BAL) | 5 | 1.79% | 2.33% | 53.0 | 40 | 2.87% | 3.27% | 60.3 | 40 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston (NO) | 3 | 3.48% | 0.00% | 48.9 | 41 | 3.47% | 0.00% | 48.9 | 42 | -1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 2.60% | 0.00% | 45.7 | 42 | 3.52% | 0.17% | 52.8 | 41 | +1 |
| P.J. Walker (CHI) | 6 | 2.83% | 0.00% | 42.1 | 43 | 2.61% | 0.41% | 41.3 | 44 | -1 |
| Colt McCoy (ARI) | 4 | 0.76% | 0.00% | 35.8 | 44 | 1.80% | 0.93% | 42.1 | 43 | +1 |
| Desmond Ridder (ATL) | 3 | 1.74% | 0.00% | 22.9 | 45 | 3.37% | 3.60% | 33.9 | 45 | 0 |
| Sam Ehlinger (IND) | 3 | 2.97% | 0.00% | 22.2 | 46 | 3.84% | 2.33% | 28.1 | 46 | 0 |
| Skylar Thompson (MIA) | 6 | 0.95% | 0.00% | 14.1 | 47 | 1.90% | 0.21% | 18.3 | 47 | 0 |
