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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Quarterbacks - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESPaTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKPaTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Josh Allen (BUF) 166.47%7.84%405.116.12%7.43%394.51 0
Kyler Murray (ARI) 164.66%8.27%390.724.62%6.49%375.52 0
Aaron Rodgers (GB) 169.13%7.89%387.337.59%5.44%349.46-3
Patrick Mahomes II (KC) 156.46%3.17%380.445.84%3.39%366.64 0
Deshaun Watson (HOU) 166.07%3.33%376.355.79%4.01%373.93 +2
Russell Wilson (SEA) 167.17%2.41%372.866.31%2.28%353.15 +1
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) 166.86%16.28%350.476.09%11.81%324.110-3
Tom Brady (TB) 166.56%10.00%349.986.04%8.71%334.98 0
Justin Herbert (LAC) 155.21%9.09%342.894.83%9.47%335.17 +2
Lamar Jackson (BAL) 156.91%4.40%341.8106.25%3.73%325.49 +1
Kirk Cousins (MIN) 166.78%3.13%319.2115.93%4.75%304.711 0
Matt Ryan (ATL) 164.15%6.90%293.4124.62%5.93%303.312 0
Derek Carr (LV) 165.22%7.69%281.1135.61%7.40%288.413 0
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) 155.43%0.00%277.2145.07%3.78%274.115-1
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 164.92%0.00%270.6154.61%0.73%265.216-1
Cam Newton (NE) 152.17%8.76%269.0162.96%9.30%285.114 +2
Baker Mayfield (CLE) 165.35%1.85%255.6175.56%3.56%265.217 0
Jared Goff (DET) 153.62%7.84%253.0183.81%6.76%253.719-1
Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) 153.04%9.43%252.3193.50%8.07%256.918 +1
Philip Rivers (IND) 164.41%0.00%251.0204.52%0.32%253.620 0
Drew Brees (NO) 126.15%11.11%215.5215.70%8.58%205.823-2
Carson Wentz (IND) 123.66%9.62%213.4223.86%7.22%209.421 +1
Drew Lock (DEN) 133.61%6.82%196.3233.87%6.31%199.524-1
Daniel Jones (NYG) 142.46%1.54%190.0243.42%1.23%206.122 +2
Joe Burrow (CIN) 103.22%8.11%178.7254.06%8.77%193.825 0
Gardner Minshew II (JAC) 94.89%3.45%164.7265.22%2.29%166.927-1
Mitchell Trubisky (BUF) 105.39%3.03%161.7275.71%3.84%167.126 +1
Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS) 104.87%6.67%160.7284.93%7.41%162.728 0
Taysom Hill (NO) 163.31%9.20%150.6294.06%8.58%151.030-1
Sam Darnold (CAR) 122.47%5.41%145.0303.01%3.41%148.432-2
Andy Dalton (CHI) 114.20%0.00%143.9314.78%1.39%154.029 +2
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) 103.79%8.33%140.5324.56%8.00%148.631 +1
Dak Prescott (DAL) 54.05%16.67%138.6333.96%14.23%135.234-1
Nick Mullens (SF) 103.68%0.00%128.3344.40%2.71%139.133 +1
Jalen Hurts (PHI) 154.05%4.76%112.4353.89%3.54%106.836-1
Nick Foles (CHI) 93.21%6.25%112.2363.82%5.30%118.935 +1
Alex Smith 82.38%0.00%79.6373.32%0.10%89.137 0
Dwayne Haskins (PIT) 72.07%5.00%75.2382.81%9.10%87.238 0
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 65.00%0.00%69.3395.01%0.02%69.439 0
Mike Glennon (NYG) 53.91%0.00%65.6403.48%0.65%62.840 0
Joe Flacco (PHI) 54.48%0.00%57.8413.80%0.23%54.242-1
Brandon Allen (CIN) 53.52%0.00%53.7423.95%0.54%56.641 +1
C.J. Beathard (JAC) 65.77%0.00%52.3435.48%0.03%51.143 0
Jake Luton (JAC) 31.82%100.00%34.3441.85%54.46%31.744 0